China Considers Export Bans on Next-Generation Solar Manufacturing Technology
Beijing, Friday, 16 October 2026.
China’s proposed export curbs target next-generation solar manufacturing know-how—not finished panels—aiming to secure its clean-energy dominance as Western nations work to build independent supply chains.
China Proposes Export Bans on Next-Generation Solar Manufacturing Technology
China has unveiled proposed export restrictions on key next-generation solar manufacturing technologies, targeting high-efficiency perovskite and tandem photovoltaics alongside advanced wafer and crystalline-silicon production processes [1]. The public consultation for the 12 proposed photovoltaic technology restrictions is open through November 15, 2026, marking a significant shift in global clean energy trade dynamics [1][3]. If implemented, the controls could significantly complicate efforts by Western manufacturers and governments to build independent solar supply chains, cementing Beijing’s dominance in the global clean energy manufacturing sector [2].
Scope of Technology Restrictions
The proposal targets manufacturing technologies meeting specific thresholds, including perovskite-silicon tandem cells with wafer sizes greater than or equal to 182 mm and conversion efficiency greater than or equal to 30% [1]. Additional proposed prohibitions include cold-hydrogenation fluidized-bed processes with trichlorosilane capacity greater than or equal to 250,000 metric tons per year and silicon wafers with thickness less than or equal to 70 µm [1]. The draft proposal initiates a 30-day public comment window to shape the final regulations, during which industry stakeholders may lobby for threshold adjustments [3].
Regulatory Framework and Timelines
China’s Ministry of Commerce (Mofcom) and Ministry of Science and Technology published Joint Announcement No. 48 of 2026 on October 16, 2026, proposing export bans and restrictions on 12 specific high-efficiency photovoltaic technologies [1]. Effective October 16, 2026, companies are required to register planned exports of the listed technologies and key equipment through the Mofcom online system before transfer [1]. This action aligns with broader 2026 Chinese regulatory efforts, including a separate catalogue revision targeting artificial intelligence and biomedicine technologies reported on the same day [3].
Strategic Implications
The Mofcom said the proposals address national security concerns as photovoltaic technologies increasingly find applications in aerospace, defense and other sensitive sectors [1]. Analysts predict a short-term surge in technology-licensing deals and equipment orders before final restrictions take effect, with a likely 2028 market outcome featuring a geographically split landscape [3]. The Chinese export control framework for solar localization is set to launch once domestic capacity from three independent manufacturers exceeds 15 GW, though Announcement No. 48 may cause licensing and production delays for firms relying on Chinese technology [2].
Global Supply Chain Impact
Restricted and banned technologies include perovskite and tandem solar-cell module manufacturing, which faces a complete ban under the proposal [2]. The ministry said technologies that fall below the specified thresholds, as well as finished products manufactured using controlled technologies, are outside the proposed scope [1]. This regulatory shift aims to preserve China’s competitive lead in solar technology by controlling the ability of foreign rivals in the United States, India, and Europe to establish independent tandem production capacity [3].
Conclusion
China asserts that while these specific controls are being implemented, a limited set of photovoltaic technologies and most AI technologies will remain freely exportable, with continued commitment to an open-source AI innovation ecosystem [2]. The public comment period for the draft revision is scheduled from October 16, 2026, to November 15, 2026, providing a critical window for international feedback [4]. As the consultation period progresses, the global solar industry will closely monitor whether the final rules maintain the proposed thresholds or adjust based on stakeholder input [3].