Deloitte Forecasts Challenges for Oil and Gas Industry in 2026
New York, Thursday, 30 October 2025.
Deloitte’s report reveals that President Trump’s tariffs will significantly increase costs and disrupt supply chains in the oil and gas sector in 2026, impacting investment decisions.
Navigating Tariff-Induced Challenges
The Deloitte report, published on October 29, 2025, highlights the substantial impacts of tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump on the oil and gas industry for 2026, with operating costs expected to rise between 4% and 40%. These tariffs, ranging from 10% to 25% on crude feedstocks and up to 50% on steel, aluminum, and copper, are anticipated to compress industry margins significantly [1][2].
Supply Chain and Investment Impacts
As companies brace for these increased costs, supply chains are likely to experience significant disruptions. The tariffs are forecasted to delay final investment decisions (FIDs) and offshore greenfield projects valued at over $50 billion to 2026 or beyond, due to inflation and financial uncertainties [1][3]. This delay in investment is expected to weaken momentum in the industry, as firms reconsider their strategic plans and renegotiate contracts to manage cost volatility [2][3].
Strategic Shifts and Resilience
In response to these challenges, organizations are expected to shift towards prioritizing supply chain resilience over cost minimization. This strategic pivot involves sourcing from domestic or non-tariffed suppliers, a significant move given the United States’ reliance on imports, with nearly 40% of oil country tubular goods demand in 2024 met through foreign sources [2][3]. Deloitte suggests that this shift could help mitigate some of the adverse effects of the tariffs [1].
The Road Ahead for Oil and Gas Firms
Looking towards 2026, oil and gas companies face the dual task of navigating these economic pressures while pursuing growth opportunities, particularly in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector. As the industry adapts, there is a need for firms to build long-term resilience by embracing digital transformation and innovative strategies to remain competitive in a rapidly evolving market [1][4].