Rising Economic Credit for Trump Clashes With Immigration Backlash Ahead of Midterms
Washington, Monday, 2 February 2026.
While 63% of voters credit Trump for the economy, 57% reject his immigration tactics, handing Democrats a crucial 8-point lead in the upcoming 2026 midterm outlook.
Diverging Approval Metrics
The data released today, February 2, 2026, by Harvard CAPS / Harris paints a picture of an administration succeeding in economic branding while faltering significantly on social policy implementation [1]. While President Trump has successfully shifted economic credit away from the Biden administration—with 63% of voters now attributing the economy’s performance to him—his overall approval rating has declined by 2 points to 45% [1]. This erosion of support appears directly linked to the administration’s aggressive immigration enforcement, with 57% of voters indicating that agencies like ICE and CBP have “gone too far” [1][4].
Economic Perception vs. Reality
The economic narrative faces scrutiny when compared to hard data. While 49% of voters perceive the economy as strong—a 2-point increase since December 2025 [1]—macroeconomic indicators tell a more volatile story. Contrary to the President’s claims of slashing trade deficits, Bureau of Economic Analysis data for November 2025 revealed the trade deficit widened by nearly 95%, marking the largest monthly increase since 1992 [2]. Furthermore, while the administration claims tariff revenues in the “hundreds of billions,” actual collections through mid-December 2025 stood at approximately $133.5 billion, with estimates approaching $150 billion [2].
The Immigration Wedge
The backlash against immigration enforcement is becoming a defining feature of the political landscape for 2026. A Reuters/Ipsos poll highlights a stark reversal in public sentiment: approval for the President’s handling of immigration has plummeted to 39% as of late January 2026, down from 50% in February 2025 [6]. This discontent is not merely about policy direction but execution; 55% of voters disapprove of how laws are being enforced in U.S. cities, and a significant 86% now support body camera requirements for agents [5].
Midterm Forecasts and Political Risk
These friction points are coalescing into a tangible threat for the Republican Party ahead of the 2026 midterms. The Harvard CAPS / Harris poll indicates that Democrats now hold an 8-point lead on the generic congressional ballot among registered voters [1]. Mark Penn, Co-Director of the poll, notes that despite favorable economic statistics, the perception of a “sagging” economy combined with inflation concerns creates a difficult environment for incumbents [1]. With inflation and immigration ranking as the top two issues for voters at 33% and 29% respectively [1], the administration’s ability to reconcile its economic messaging with the demand for more moderate enforcement tactics may determine the balance of power in the coming year.