State Lawmakers Target Electoral College System Ahead of 2028 Election

State Lawmakers Target Electoral College System Ahead of 2028 Election

2026-11-13 politics

Washington, Friday, 13 November 2026.
Recent statehouse victories give Democrats the required leverage to activate the National Popular Vote Compact, though legal architects warn the mechanism lacks oversight and risks major electoral disputes.

Democrats Gain Critical Leverage in Statehouses

Democrats have secured unified control of state governments in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada following the November 2026 midterm elections, providing the necessary trifectas to push forward the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) [3][5][8]. This strategic shift comes as demographic projections indicate Democratic strongholds may lose congressional representation after the 2030 census, threatening to diminish their electoral influence in future presidential elections [alert! ‘projected census shifts remain unconfirmed’].

The NPVIC operates as an interstate agreement where participating states pledge their 538 electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote, rather than their own state’s popular vote [1][3]. The compact would activate once jurisdictions totaling at least 270 electoral votes join, effectively bypassing the Electoral College without requiring a constitutional amendment [1][3]. Currently, 18 states and Washington D.C. (combining for 222 electoral votes) have already adopted the compact [3][5][8]. Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (10), Arizona (11), and Nevada (6) would push the total to 270 if all five states join [3][5][8].

Political Architects Voice Caution

Legal scholar Akhil Reed Amar, a primary architect of the NPVIC concept, has expressed serious reservations about the current implementation approach. Amar, who co-authored the original 2001 proposal, now warns the compact lacks critical safeguards, stating: ‘This is like Doctor Strangelove. I created this doomsday machine’ [1]. His concerns center on three key structural flaws: 1) The absence of a centralized national body to oversee vote tallies, 2) Extreme variations in state voter eligibility and administration rules, and 3) The lack of red-state participation, which could lead to sabotage or refusal to fund recounts [1].

Democrats Face Political Crossroads

While the NPVIC enjoys broad public support—with 63% of American voters favoring a national popular vote system according to a 2024 Pew Research Center survey [7]—Democrats in newly gained statehouses face competing pressures. Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania has signaled openness to the reform, stating: ‘I think the national popular vote makes sense’ while emphasizing the need for careful legislative consideration [7]. However, critics argue implementing the compact would diminish the importance of these swing states in future elections, potentially undermining the very Democratic gains that created this opportunity [3][5].

Harvard historian Alexander Keyssar, author of ‘Why Do We Still Have the Electoral College?’, predicts active efforts to advance the compact in states with Democratic trifectas [7]. Yet legal experts highlight potential implementation hurdles. The compact relies entirely on participating states faithfully tallying national votes and pledging electors accordingly—a system Amar describes as vulnerable to ‘glitches’ that could trigger nationwide disputes in extremely close elections [1]. With the 2028 presidential election on the horizon, advocates plan to push for legislative approval in target states beginning in 2027 [3][5][7].

Public Opinion and Partisan Divides

Public support for abandoning the Electoral College has grown substantially, with 80% of Democrats and 46% of Republicans favoring the change according to 2024 polling [7]. However, the NPVIC faces opposition from groups like Save Our States, whose director Harry Roth warns that the system would allow ‘a candidate rejected by Michigan voters [to] still receive Michigan’s electoral votes’ [7]. Meanwhile, NPVIC organizers maintain confidence in their approach, with senior consultant Patrick Rosenstiel stating: ‘We feel like we’re well positioned to give 63% of American voters what they want’ [7].

Sources


Electoral College National Popular Vote