Export Boom Drives Vietnam's 8% Growth and Historic US Surplus

Export Boom Drives Vietnam's 8% Growth and Historic US Surplus

2026-01-07 economy

Hanoi, Wednesday, 7 January 2026.
Defying trade barriers, Vietnam’s economy expanded 8% in 2025, fueled by a record-breaking $134 billion trade surplus with the United States.

Resilience in the Face of Trade Barriers

Preliminary data released by the government on Monday, January 5, confirms that Vietnam’s GDP growth accelerated to 8.02% in 2025, up from 7.09% the previous year [1][6]. This robust performance was underpinned by a surge in manufacturing and exports, particularly to the United States, despite a complex tariff landscape. Total exports for the year rose by 17% to approximately $475 billion [1]. The manufacturing sector, a cornerstone of this expansion, recorded its highest growth rate of the 2019-2025 period, increasing by 9.97% [6]. This data suggests that global supply chain shifts continue to favor Vietnam, even as the Trump administration maintains 20% duties on Vietnamese goods [1].

Vietnam’s trade relationship with the United States has deepened significantly, raising both economic fortunes and diplomatic stakes. Exports to the U.S. reached $153 billion in 2025, a substantial increase of 28.033% from the $119.5 billion recorded in 2024 [1]. Consequently, Vietnam’s trade surplus with Washington widened to nearly $134 billion, surpassing the previous year’s $123.5 billion [1]. However, this surplus sits alongside a sharp rise in imports from China, which grew to $186 billion in 2025 from $144.2 billion in 2024 [1]. This dynamic has drawn scrutiny regarding transshipment, with the U.S. administration previously accusing Vietnam of acting as a hub for Chinese goods to bypass American levies, a practice that attracts punitive tariffs of 40% [1].

Investment Flows and Business Sentiment

Foreign investors appear undeterred by the trade friction, pouring capital into the Southeast Asian nation at record rates. Realized foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2025 reached estimated $27.62 billion, a 9.0% increase year-on-year [6]. Total registered foreign investment stood at $38.42 billion by the end of the year [5][6]. Domestic business activity mirrors this optimism; nearly 297,500 businesses were newly established or returned to operation in 2025, representing a 27.4% increase compared to 2024 [2][6]. In the fourth quarter alone, GDP is estimated to have grown by 8.46%, the highest Q4 increase in the 2011-2025 period, indicating strong momentum heading into the new year [2][6].

Strategic Planning for 2026-2030

Looking ahead, the government is moving to solidify the data infrastructure needed to sustain this growth. Today, January 7, 2026, the General Statistics Office and the Ministry of Finance launched the 2026 Economic Census in Hai Phong City [3][4]. This comprehensive review aims to digitize data collection and assess the digital transformation of economic establishments across the country [3]. The collected data will be crucial for calculating GDP and shaping policies for the 2026-2030 period, where the government is targeting annual growth of at least 10% [1]. However, officials caution that maintaining macroeconomic stability and controlling inflation—which stood at 3.31% for 2025—remain prerequisites for achieving these ambitious targets [5][6].

Sources


Supply Chain International Trade