Denmark Lowers 2025 Growth Estimate Due to Novo Nordisk's Decline
Copenhagen, Friday, 29 August 2025.
Denmark cut its 2025 growth forecast from 3% to 1.4%, citing Novo Nordisk’s struggles and U.S. tariffs, reflecting potential global economic impacts.
Economic Impacts of the Revised Forecast
The Danish government has revised its economic growth forecast for 2025 down from 3% to 1.4%, highlighting the challenges faced by Novo Nordisk A/S due to increased competition and U.S. tariffs on Danish goods. The pharmaceutical industry, which has been a significant contributor to Denmark’s economy, saw a downturn due to the increased competition in weight-loss product markets and the tariff impacts on exports. This revision signals potential setbacks in Denmark’s economic progression, as pharmaceuticals were expected to contribute substantially to growth[1][2].
Broader Economic Context and Export Challenges
Denmark’s decline in growth expectations can also be attributed to a general slowdown in goods exports, with the growth rate expected to drop from 10.5% in 2024 to 2.7% in 2025. Pharmaceuticals’ contribution to export growth is projected at just 1.3 percentage points, a steep decline from 8.1 percentage points the previous year. This downturn has been exacerbated by the U.S. administration’s tariff increases and regulatory uncertainties, which have weighed on Danish exports, projected to grow by only 0.9% in 2025 compared to earlier forecasts[1][2][3][4].
The Role of Novo Nordisk in Denmark’s Economy
Novo Nordisk A/S, a cornerstone of Denmark’s pharmaceutical sector, has encountered significant hurdles. The company’s scaled-back full-year sales and profit forecasts indicate ongoing struggles in maintaining competitive edge in the obesity drug market. With key products like Ozempic and Wegovy facing stiff competition from rivals like Eli Lilly, the future of Novo Nordisk’s growth remains uncertain. Despite these challenges, Novo Nordisk’s employment and operational presence in Denmark continue to be significant, representing one-fifth of Denmark’s employment growth last year[3][4][5].
Outlook for 2026
Despite the dim forecast for 2025, Denmark is hopeful for a rebound in 2026, revising the growth forecast upward from 1.4% to 2.1%. This optimism is based on anticipated increases in private and public consumption, alongside a relatively strong labor market characterized by high employment rates. While the uncertainties around the U.S. administration’s policies pose challenges, the Danish economy’s robust fundamentals provide a silver lining for future prospects[2][4][5].