Stock Futures Rise as Falling Oil Prices Offset Election and Earnings Uncertainty
New York, Monday, 2 November 2026.
U.S. equity futures rebounded Monday following a brutal $5 trillion tech sell-off, lifted by falling crude prices as investors braced for key earnings, jobs data, and Tuesday’s midterm elections.
Market Rebound After Historic AI Sell-Off
U.S. stock futures staged a modest rebound on Monday, 2 November 2026, attempting to recover from the steepest artificial intelligence-related sell-off in history. The S&P 500 futures advanced 0.44% to 7,647.50 points, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.87% to 28,782.0, and Dow Jones futures rose 0.34% to 52,092.0 [1][2][4][5]. This upward momentum followed a $5 trillion wipeout in AI and chip stocks between 6 October and 31 October 2026, a period during which 47 major AI-linked companies collectively lost nearly 5000.000 billion in market capitalization [3]. Among the hardest-hit were Nvidia and Alphabet, each shedding approximately $834 billion, followed by SpaceX at $505 billion and TSMC at $395 billion [3]. Notably, Apple reclaimed its position as the world’s most valuable publicly traded company on 30 October 2026, with a market capitalization exceeding $5.03 trillion, surpassing Nvidia’s $4.93 trillion valuation [3][5].
Oil Price Declines Provide Temporary Relief
The market rebound was supported by a sharp decline in oil prices on Sunday, 1 November 2026. Brent crude tumbled 4.5% to $108.38 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell more than 4% to $99.31, reversing gains from 30 October 2026 [2][5]. This price correction followed reports that financial regulators in mainland China and Hong Kong met with banks and securities firms, contributing to a 0.59% gain in the Hang Seng Index and a 0.21% rise in the CSI 300 [2]. Geopolitical tensions remained a key driver of oil price volatility, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut for the ninth consecutive month due to the ongoing conflict with Iran [3]. Despite the immediate price drop, crude oil had settled above $104 per barrel on 30 October 2026, marking its highest close since mid-September 2026 [3].
Earnings Season and Election Uncertainty Loom Large
Investors now face a critical week packed with corporate earnings, economic data releases, and the U.S. midterm elections on Tuesday, 3 November 2026. Apple is scheduled to report earnings after the bell on Monday, 2 November 2026, with Palantir, AMD, Pfizer, McDonald’s, and Qualcomm following later in the week [1][2][4]. Market strategists are closely monitoring these reports, particularly given Apple’s recent rally that restored its status as the world’s most valuable company [3][5]. Meanwhile, the October nonfarm payrolls report is set for release on Friday, 6 November 2026, with economists expecting an increase of 55,000 jobs [2][4]. Money markets have priced a 78% probability of a 25-basis-point interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December 2026, a decision that will likely hinge on labor market and inflation data [1][2][4].
Policy Risks and Market Sentiment Ahead of Midterms
The upcoming midterm elections present a significant wildcard for markets, with all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats up for grabs [1][2][3]. Polling data indicates that President Donald Trump’s approval rating stands at 31%, amid persistent consumer frustration over gasoline inflation and geopolitical conflicts [1][2]. Analysts warn that a potential Democratic sweep of either or both chambers of Congress could stall legislative initiatives, infrastructure investments, and federal debt-ceiling negotiations, adding to market uncertainty [1][2]. Despite these risks, some strategists, such as Mike Dickson, head of research and quantitative strategies at Horizon, suggest that stocks tend to remain steady regardless of which party gains control of Congress [2]. Meanwhile, Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research emphasized that while technicals in the AI trade appear fragile, fundamentals remain intact, though the October sell-off highlighted vulnerabilities in the sector [2].