Maine Senate Poll Shows Challenger Platner Overtaking Mills and Collins

2026-02-25 politics

Augusta, Tuesday, 24 February 2026.
New polling reveals challenger Graham Platner holds a commanding 64% primary lead and, unlike Governor Mills, significantly outperforms incumbent Senator Susan Collins in general election match-ups.

A Seismic Shift in Polling Numbers

A University of New Hampshire (UNH) poll released yesterday, February 23, 2026, portrays a dramatic transformation in Maine’s political landscape. In the Democratic primary race for the U.S. Senate, Graham Platner has secured 64% of support among likely voters, commanding a 38 percentage point lead over incumbent Governor Janet Mills, who polls at 26% [1][2]. This represents a surge in momentum for Platner, whose support has grown by 6 percentage points since October 2025 [1]. The data suggests that the challenger’s populist platform is resonating with the electorate more effectively than the Governor’s established record, despite Mills’ history of electoral success, including a 13-point victory over Paul LePage in 2022 [3].

General Election Viability

Perhaps the most striking insight from the UNH survey is the divergence in general election viability against Republican Senator Susan Collins. While Governor Mills holds a narrow, statistically insignificant lead over Collins of 1 percentage point, Platner outperforms the incumbent Senator by a substantial margin [1]. The poll indicates that in a hypothetical matchup, Platner leads Collins 49% to 38%, an 11-point advantage that challenges the conventional wisdom that only a moderate Democrat can unseat the five-term Republican [1][2]. Collins, who officially announced her bid for a sixth term on February 10, 2026, remains the sole Republican congressional representative in New England, a region that has increasingly trended blue [2][4].

Financial Disparity and Grassroots Momentum

The polling surge correlates with a significant financial advantage for the Platner campaign. By the end of December 2025, Platner—a 41-year-old oyster farmer and combat veteran—had raised $7.8 million, nearly three times the $2.7 million reported by Governor Mills [3]. This fundraising gap of 5.1 million dollars underscores the grassroots energy behind Platner, who was endorsed by Senator Bernie Sanders in August 2025 and has campaigned on a platform including Medicare for All and the abolition of ICE [3]. Conversely, Mills has retained the backing of establishment figures such as Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, yet appears to be struggling to consolidate the Democratic base [3].

Resilience Amidst Controversy

Platner’s rise has occurred despite significant campaign turbulence in the fall of 2025. He faced scrutiny over a tattoo resembling a Nazi symbol—which he acquired while deployed in Croatia with the U.S. Marines in 2007 and has since covered—as well as inflammatory internet posts [2]. These controversies coincided with the resignation of key staff members, including his campaign manager and national finance director [2]. Nevertheless, the February 23 poll suggests these issues have not dampened voter enthusiasm, with Platner continuing to draw large crowds, such as an audience of approximately 300 at a University of Maine event on February 21, 2026 [7].

Strategic Responses and Next Steps

In response to the tightening race, the Mills campaign announced on February 23, 2026, that the Governor would participate in five debates and forums ahead of the June primary [5]. This move signals a shift to a more aggressive campaign posture as the field narrows; notably, candidate Tucker Favreau ended his campaign on the same day the new polling data was released [5]. As the June 2026 primary approaches, the contest has evolved into a clear choice between the establishment politics represented by Mills and the economic populism of Platner, with the winner set to face a formidable challenge from Senator Collins in November [2][3].

Sources

Senate Elections Maine Politics