Adam Silver Confirms 2026 Timeline for Decision on NBA Expansion Markets
Las Vegas, Wednesday, 17 December 2025.
Commissioner Silver confirmed a 2026 decision timeline for expanding to Seattle and Las Vegas, a strategic move expected to command multi-billion dollar franchise fees for the league.
Defining the Roadmap
Speaking at a news conference prior to the NBA Cup final on December 16, 2025, Silver officially set the clock on domestic growth, announcing that the league will make a final determination on expansion sometime in 2026 [1]. This marks the first definitive timeline provided by the commissioner regarding the potential increase from 30 to 32 franchises, a topic that has been under discussion since the 2020-21 season [1][4]. While the league is actively reviewing whether existing teams are prepared to dilute their revenue shares, Silver emphasized that the focus remains strictly on expansion rather than relocation, noting that moving franchises requires a separate set of criteria involving community support and operational viability [2].
The Economics of Equity Dilution
The hesitation to expand rapidly is rooted in the complex financial architecture of the league. As Silver noted, traditional expansion is effectively “selling equity in the current league” [2]. Currently, the NBA generates approximately $11 billion in revenue; however, under the collective bargaining agreement, players receive 51% of basketball-related income, leaving the owners with slightly over $5 billion to divide among themselves [2]. Adding two new franchises would shift individual ownership equity from 1/30th to 1/32nd, necessitating expansion fees high enough to offset this long-term dilution of shared revenue [1][2].
Assessing the Candidate Markets
Las Vegas and Seattle have emerged as the primary targets for this potential multi-billion dollar capital injection [1][3]. Seattle represents a restoration of legacy, having been without a team since the SuperSonics relocated to Oklahoma City in 2008 [2]. Conversely, Las Vegas represents a play on future infrastructure and tourism. The city has hosted the NBA Summer League for two decades and is preparing for the arrival of Major League Baseball in 2028, anchored by a new $2 billion ballpark [3]. Former NBA star James Worthy noted on December 16, 2025, that the league has been “massaging and marinating” the Southern Nevada market to test its readiness for a permanent franchise [3].
Market Saturation and Logistics
Despite the optimism surrounding Las Vegas, recent data suggests the market requires careful calibration. While the city has successfully hosted exhibition events, the NBA is pivoting its strategy for the Emirates NBA Cup. Following attendance inconsistencies during the December 13, 2025 semifinals—where the Knicks-Magic game at T-Mobile Arena was only three-quarters full—the league plans to move the 2026 Cup semifinals back to home markets to ensure engaged crowds [4]. This decision highlights the distinction between hosting marquee neutral-site events and maintaining the consistent local support required for a full-time franchise.