Texas Senate Race Shifts: Talarico Takes Democratic Lead as GOP Faces Runoff
Austin, Sunday, 18 January 2026.
A fresh Emerson poll reveals a dramatic shift: James Talarico now leads the Democratic primary by nine points, overturning December’s trends, while Republican frontrunners remain deadlocked in a likely runoff.
Democratic Momentum Swings to Talarico
The political terrain in Texas has undergone a significant transformation just weeks before the primary. A survey released on January 15, 2026, by Emerson College Polling places State Representative James Talarico at the forefront of the Democratic field with 47% support, commanding a nine-point advantage over U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett, who stands at 38% [1][4]. This represents a volatile shift from December 2025, when a Texas Southern University poll favored Crockett by an eight-point margin, marking a total reversal in voter sentiment over a single month [4][8]. The magnitude of this reversal is a 17 point swing in the polling gap, a volatility that underscores the fluidity of the electorate [8].
A Fractured Republican Field
Conversely, the Republican primary appears destined for a runoff, a scenario that often drains campaign resources and extends political uncertainty. Incumbent Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton are statistically tied, polling at 26% and 27% respectively, while Representative Wesley Hunt trails at 16% [1][4]. Under Texas law, a candidate requires a majority of the vote to win the nomination outright on March 3, 2026; failing that, the top two contenders will advance to a May runoff [4]. Taglia has characterized this contest as a “two-horse race” between Paxton and Cornyn, though the margin of error of 4.1 percentage points leaves room for volatility [1].
General Election Forecasts and Voter Priorities
Looking toward the general election, the data indicates a competitive landscape regardless of the nominees. In hypothetical matchups, Paxton is currently tied with either Democratic challenger at 46% [4][8]. However, Talarico performs slightly better than Crockett against other Republicans; while Cornyn and Hunt lead Crockett by five percentage points, their lead shrinks to three points against Talarico [4][8]. Amidst the political maneuvering, economic concerns remain the primary driver for Texas voters, with 28% citing the economy as their top issue, followed by threats to democracy at 17% and immigration at 14% [4].