TMC Validates First Deep-Sea Reserves and Projects $23.6 Billion Economic Value

2026-01-18 companies

Vancouver, Saturday, 17 January 2026.
TMC declares the world’s first polymetallic nodule reserves, projecting a staggering $23.6 billion combined value and targeting commercial production by late 2027 to supply critical battery metals.

Unpacking the Economic Assessments

The Metals Company (Nasdaq: TMC) has formally released two technical economic assessments prepared under Regulation S-K Subpart 1300, asserting a combined Net Present Value (NPV) of $23.6 billion for its deep-sea mining operations [1]. This filing represents a historic milestone for the nascent industry, as TMC declares the world’s first probable mineral reserves for a polymetallic nodule project [1]. The valuation is bifurcated between the company’s primary NORI-D project and its broader license areas. The NORI-D project alone accounts for an NPV of $5.5 billion, underpinned by 51 million tonnes of probable mineral reserves [1]. The remaining $18.1 billion in projected value is derived from an Initial Assessment of the company’s other resources across the NORI and TOML areas, excluding NORI-D [1]. These figures aim to demonstrate not just the viability of the initial mining site, but the immense scalability of the resource basin [1].

Operational Timeline and Production Targets

TMC has outlined an aggressive timeline for development, targeting the commencement of commercial production in the fourth quarter of 2027 [1]. The operational plan envisions a ramp-up to a steady state of 10.8 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of wet nodules between 2031 and 2043 [1]. Once this steady state is achieved, the company projects annual production volumes of 97 kilotonnes per annum (ktpa) of nickel, 2,389 ktpa of manganese, 70 ktpa of copper, and 7.4 ktpa of cobalt [1]. This output is intended to feed the growing demand for critical battery metals, a sector where the United States currently relies heavily on foreign supply chains, particularly from China [2][3]. To support this throughput, TMC plans to utilize rotary kiln electric furnace (RKEF) infrastructure in Japan and Indonesia for initial processing before eventually moving refining operations to the United States [1].

Financial Position and Market Reaction

The release of these economic studies comes amidst a volatile but upward-trending period for TMC’s stock. As of January 16, 2026, the company’s stock closed at $7.24, reflecting a market capitalization of approximately $3.05 billion [4][8]. Over the past year, investor interest in the potential for rare-earth and battery metal diversification has driven the share price up by 627% [2][3]. However, the company remains in a pre-revenue phase with significant cash burn. In its Q3 2025 report, TMC disclosed an operating loss of $55.4 million and a net loss of $184.5 million [4][6]. Despite these losses, the company maintained a cash position of $115.6 million as of September 30, 2025, bolstered by a strategic investment of $85.2 million from Korea Zinc earlier in the year [4].

Regulatory Hurdles and Environmental Scrutiny

While the economic projections are robust, TMC faces a complex regulatory landscape. In April 2025, the company’s subsidiary, TMC USA, submitted an application for a commercial recovery permit under the U.S. Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act (DSHMRA) [1]. This domestic approach runs parallel to international negotiations at the International Seabed Authority (ISA), which regulates activities in international waters [5]. Environmental concerns remain a critical variable; deep-sea mining operations generate sediment plumes that can smother seabed organisms and disrupt the water column [5]. TMC asserts it has conducted over a decade of research into these impacts to mitigate environmental risks [1]. Nevertheless, the timeline for commercial production remains contingent upon securing the necessary regulatory approvals from both U.S. and international bodies [1][5].

Sources

Critical Minerals Deep Sea Mining