Send Help Leads Weekend Projections as Niche Releases Iron Lung and Melania Surge
Los Angeles, Thursday, 29 January 2026.
Raimi’s Send Help targets a $25 million global debut, while YouTuber Markiplier’s self-distributed Iron Lung disrupts the market with $6 million in presales, challenging traditional studio dominance.
Studio Mechanics vs. Creator Economy
As theaters prepare for the weekend of January 30, 2026, the box office landscape presents a distinct clash between traditional studio output and the burgeoning power of the creator economy. 20th Century Studios’ horror-thriller “Send Help,” directed by genre veteran Sam Raimi, is positioned as the frontrunner with a projected domestic opening of $14 million to $17 million across 3,475 locations [4]. Internationally, the film is expected to generate an additional $10 million to $12 million, aiming for a worldwide debut of approximately $25 million [1][4]. The film, starring Dylan O’Brien and Rachel McAdams, benefits from Raimi’s strong track record, with six of his previous films securing the number one spot upon release [1][2]. While the domestic release lands Friday, the film’s rollout has already begun in markets such as Belgium and Indonesia as of today, January 29, with expansion into major territories like Brazil, Mexico, and Italy scheduled for tomorrow [1].
The Disruptive Power of Iron Lung
Challenging the standard studio model is “Iron Lung,” a self-distributed adaptation of a 2022 video game by YouTube personality Mark Fischbach, known globally as Markiplier [4]. Leveraging a massive digital footprint of 73 million followers across platforms, Fischbach has secured 3,105 theaters for the film’s domestic run [1][6]. The project has already banked $6 million in presales, a figure that underscores the efficiency of direct-to-audience marketing [1]. While conservative estimates place the opening weekend between $9 million and $10 million, some analysts suggest the film has a ceiling as high as $17 million to $20 million, driven by a highly engaged fanbase [2]. This performance is particularly notable given the absence of a traditional distributor, marking a significant moment for creator-led intellectual property in the theatrical space.
Specialized Releases and Market Challenges
In the specialized sector, the documentary “Melania” is demonstrating surprising resilience. Despite being a niche release, Amazon MGM Studios has invested heavily in the project, spending $40 million on acquisition and an additional $35 million on marketing, totaling a massive 75 million dollar investment [4]. The film, which chronicles the period leading up to the 2025 inauguration, is tracking for a debut between $2 million and $5 million from approximately 1,500 locations [2][4]. Bookings for the documentary have surged since January 17, and the film is set to premiere today, January 29, at the Trump-Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C. [2][4].