Navarro Links Expected Drop in Job Growth to Mass Deportations
Washington D.C., Wednesday, 11 February 2026.
Citing mass deportations, Navarro advises markets to accept 50,000 monthly jobs as the new normal, claiming previous higher figures relied on unauthorized labor.
Reframing the Narrative
Following earlier reports that labor instability is replacing inflation as the primary economic threat [https://wsnext.com/a4da9d7-Labor-Market-Federal-Reserve/], the White House is now moving to preemptively frame the anticipated data as a deliberate policy outcome rather than a sign of economic distress. On Tuesday, White House senior trade adviser Peter Navarro explicitly warned markets to revise their expectations “down significantly” ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly jobs report, scheduled for release today, Wednesday, February 11 [1][3]. Navarro attributed the expected statistical weakness directly to the administration’s mass deportation initiatives, arguing that the removal of unauthorized immigrant workers is creating a necessary contraction in the labor force [1]. This marks a distinct pivot in administrative messaging, moving from denying labor market softness to characterizing it as a structural correction caused by strict immigration enforcement [1][4].
The New “Steady State”
In an interview on Fox Business, Navarro established a new benchmark for labor health, suggesting that a monthly addition of 50,000 jobs should now be considered the “steady state” for the U.S. economy, a sharp deviation from previous standards [1]. He contended that the higher job creation figures seen during the Biden administration—which averaged approximately 168,000 jobs per month—were artificially inflated by the entry of unauthorized workers [1][2]. According to Navarro, the economy previously required 200,000 jobs monthly to absorb immigration flows, but with the border closed and deportations active, the requirement has dropped to 50,000 [1]. Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, reinforced this view on Monday, stating that a decline in the labor force due to immigrants leaving the country is consistent with high GDP growth and skyrocketing productivity [1][4].
Friction in the Data
While the administration frames the slowdown as a demographic adjustment, the underlying data highlights significant friction in the employment sector. Since President Trump’s return to office, average monthly job creation has plummeted to roughly 49,000, representing a decline of approximately -70.833% compared to the previous administration’s average [2]. Concurrently, the unemployment rate reached a four-year high of 4.6% in November 2025, and planned layoffs in January 2026 hit their highest level for that month since the Great Recession [2][4]. Furthermore, while Navarro claimed the administration is deporting “millions” of people from the job market [1][4], reported data indicates that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has arrested approximately 393,000 immigrants since the administration began its term [2][4]. This discrepancy suggests that while enforcement is active, the scale of the labor force reduction cited by the White House may not fully align with current arrest statistics.
Market Resilience and Adjustment
Despite the cooling labor data, financial markets have shown resilience, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average recently surpassing the 50,000 milestone [5]. Navarro pointed to this disconnect as evidence that the administration’s broader supply-side framework, including tariffs and investment strategies, is driving productivity even as the raw labor count fluctuates [5]. He explicitly advised Wall Street to adjust its models for the new migration reality, stating that investors cannot “rain on that parade” when headline job numbers come in lower than historical norms [1]. As the jobs report is released today, the critical question for analysts will be whether the market accepts the administration’s “new normal” of 50,000 jobs per month or views the data as a precursor to a deeper recessionary crack.