Guyana Approaches Venezuela's Oil Output While Dominating Global Per Capita Production
Georgetown, Saturday, 8 August 2026.
Guyana’s offshore oil production has reached 900,000 barrels daily. With just one million residents, the nation solidifies its standing as the world’s leading oil producer per capita.
Production Convergence in the Caribbean
Guyana’s offshore oil production has reached 900,000 barrels daily following the startup of the Yellowtail project, marking a significant milestone in the nation’s energy trajectory [1]. With just one million residents, the nation solidifies its standing as the world’s leading oil producer per capita, a stark contrast to Venezuela’s established but population-heavy output [1]. In July 2026, Venezuela averaged approximately 1.16 million barrels per day, meaning the production gap between the two neighbors has narrowed to 0.26 million barrels per day [1]. This convergence underscores a rapid geopolitical shift, as Guyana’s Stabroek Block, operated by ExxonMobil and co-venturers, continues to ramp up capacity while Venezuela works to recover from historical declines [1].
Demographic Dividends and Future Capacity
The disparity in population size amplifies Guyana’s economic position, with 2025 World Bank estimates placing Venezuela’s population at 28.4 million compared to Guyana’s one million at the end of 2025 [1]. While Venezuela produces more oil in absolute terms, Guyana’s per capita output is unmatched and expected to exceed one barrel per person per day once the Uaru project comes online [1]. ExxonMobil projects production capacity in the Stabroek Block will reach about 1.7 million barrels per day by 2030 as additional projects such as Whiptail and Hammerhead come online [1]. This growth trajectory positions Guyana to produce 1.3 million barrels per day by 2027, reinforcing its status as one of the world’s fastest-growing oil producers [2].
Regional Energy Integration
Beyond production metrics, Guyana is strengthening energy partnerships across the Caribbean to leverage its expanding offshore sector for regional cooperation [2]. In June 2026, Guyana and Jamaica signed four bilateral agreements, including the creation of a joint energy working group to advance cooperation through knowledge sharing and infrastructure development [2]. Prior to this, in May 2026, Guyana and the Dominican Republic formalized an upstream partnership where the Dominican state-owned refiner acquired a 10% participating interest in the Berbice Block [2]. These agreements reflect a strategy of extending collaboration beyond offshore exploration to include cross-border investment, refining, and commercial development [2].
Global Investment Competition
On the global stage, emerging producers are competing for capital, with Nigeria targeting up to $50 billion in offshore oil and gas investment between 2026 and 2030 to revive its own output [3]. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission indicated that 22 offshore developments could unlock this investment while increasing crude production to 2 million barrels per day by 2027 [3]. This drive aims to counter trends where global oil majors divert capital to emerging rivals like Guyana and Namibia due to regulatory certainty and fiscal terms [3]. Despite these competitive pressures, Guyana’s position in per capita rankings remains secure given its population scale and approved offshore developments [1].