Global Climate Crisis: 2024 Set to Shatter 1.5°C Temperature Barrier
Baku, Monday, 18 November 2024.
Leading climate scientists declare the 1.5°C target ‘deader than a doornail’ as 2024 is projected to become the first year exceeding this crucial threshold. Three major research groups predict unprecedented warming, while global emissions continue to rise. This historic breach signals a dramatic shift in climate policy discussions ahead of COP29 in Baku, with experts warning of increased risks of extreme weather events and social upheaval.
The Imminent Breach of the 1.5°C Target
The prediction that 2024 will be the first year to exceed the 1.5°C threshold is a stark wake-up call for global leaders and policymakers. This target, initially established in the Paris Agreement, was meant to limit the catastrophic impacts of climate change. However, the consensus among scientists at COP29 is clear: the world has not acted swiftly enough to curb emissions, and the 1.5°C goal is now considered unattainable[1].
Scientific and Political Responses
Despite the grim outlook, the COP29 summit continues to emphasize the importance of striving for ambitious climate goals. Leaders like Wopke Hoekstra of the European Union acknowledge the increasing difficulty of maintaining the 1.5°C goal but stress the necessity of continuing efforts to limit warming[2]. Meanwhile, scientific voices such as Zeke Hausfather from Berkeley Earth and Gavin Schmidt from NASA underscore the urgency of immediate emission reductions, even if the 1.5°C target is surpassed[3].
The Role of Major Economies
As the world’s major economies grapple with political challenges and varying levels of commitment, the United States, under the potential leadership of Donald Trump, poses a particular concern. His return to power could reverse critical climate policies, potentially adding 0.04°C to global temperatures[4]. Major polluters like China and India are also under scrutiny to enhance their climate ambitions significantly, as their policies are crucial for global efforts to mitigate climate change impacts[5].
Looking Beyond COP29
With the 1.5°C target likely to be breached, the focus shifts to future climate negotiations, including the upcoming COP30 in Brazil. This event is expected to be a critical juncture for nations to present new, ambitious emissions-cutting targets up to 2035[6]. The Climate Action Tracker highlights that very few countries currently have policies aligned with the 1.5°C target, indicating a need for substantial policy shifts and international cooperation[7].
A Call to Action
Despite the challenges, the call for action remains strong. Vulnerable nations, in particular, view the 1.5°C target as essential for accountability from wealthier countries with historical emissions responsibilities. The ongoing negotiations and commitments reflect a global acknowledgment that, while the 1.5°C target may be out of reach, every fraction of a degree mitigated is crucial for reducing the severity of climate impacts[8].