Texas Senate Runoff Commences as Polls Expose Republican Vulnerability
Austin, Tuesday, 19 May 2026.
As early voting begins for the Texas Republican Senate runoff, new polling reveals both candidates suffer higher unfavorable ratings than their Democratic challenger, signaling a highly competitive November election.
The High-Stakes Republican Runoff
Early voting for the Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff in Texas commenced on Monday, May 18, 2026, and is scheduled to run through Friday, May 22 [1][2]. The final day to cast a ballot is approaching rapidly, though there is some ambiguity regarding the exact date [alert! ‘Sources conflict on the final voting day, with one citing May 26 and another May 27’] [1][2]. This race has already distinguished itself as the most expensive U.S. Senate contest in history [2]. Incumbent Senator John Cornyn, who has held his seat since 2002 and has never lost an election, is vying for an unprecedented fifth term [2]. However, he faces a formidable challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. In the March 2026 primary, Cornyn secured a plurality, leading Paxton by approximately 1.5 percentage points, but failed to capture the outright majority required to avoid a runoff [1]. Recent polling indicates a shift in momentum; a University of Houston poll conducted between April 28 and May 1, 2026, showed Paxton leading Cornyn 48% to 45% among likely runoff voters, a gap that sits just outside the survey’s 2.83 percentage point margin of error [1][3].