Rand Rallies to Three-Year High as US Policies Weigh on Dollar
Johannesburg, Thursday, 29 January 2026.
The rand has staged a remarkable 25% recovery since April 2025, trading at 15.79 against the dollar as US policy shifts and record gold prices fuel emerging market momentum.
Market Dynamics and Currency Valuation
On Wednesday morning, January 28, 2026, the South African currency strengthened to 15.79 against the US dollar, a level not seen since June 3, 2022 [1]. This resurgence represents a dramatic turnaround from the volatility experienced in the previous year; specifically, the Rand has recovered from a recent low of 19.74 recorded in April 2025 [1]. This shift highlights a significant appreciation of 25.016 percent in the currency’s value relative to the greenback over this period. By the close of the session on January 28, the exchange rate had settled further to 15.75 [2][3], underscoring the sustained momentum of this trend.
A Historic Commodities Boom
A primary driver of this currency strength is the unprecedented performance of precious metals, which act as a critical proxy for the resource-rich South African economy. Gold prices have surged to a record $5,300 per ounce, a rally that saw the metal set 45 closing-time records in 2025 alone [1]. James Luke, a senior portfolio manager for gold and commodities at Schroders, observes that the current scale of price increases is comparable only to the bull markets of the early and late 1970s [1]. This trend is not limited to gold but is evident across the broader precious metal complex, prompting investors to question the long-term sustainability of these valuations [1].
Interest Rates and Economic Forecasts
Domestically, the monetary landscape has provided a supportive environment for the Rand’s recovery. following a peak of 11.75% in May 2023, interest rates declined to 10.25% by November 2025 [1]. Looking ahead, financial institutions maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook. Nedbank’s macro-economic team projects that the Rand could strengthen further to 15.70, though they caution that profit-taking is becoming likely and could reverse the current run [1]. Broader global macro models are slightly more conservative, estimating that the currency will trade at 16.01 by the end of the current quarter [2].