India's November Inflation Rises Due to Food Prices
New Delhi, Tuesday, 9 December 2025.
India’s inflation increased in November 2025, primarily driven by rising food prices, yet remained near multi-year lows. This trend may influence future Reserve Bank of India policies.
Inflation Trends and Key Drivers
India’s consumer inflation in November 2025 rose to 0.70% from 0.25% in October 2025, driven largely by a recovery in food prices and diminishing base effects from previous months [1]. Food prices, which constitute nearly half of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), have seen significant fluctuations, with recent months experiencing sharp declines due to a double-digit drop in vegetable costs since April 2025 [1]. However, November’s rise indicates a broad-based increase across food categories, as noted by Kanika Pasricha, chief economic adviser at Union Bank of India [1].
Impact on Reserve Bank of India Policies
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) anticipates an average inflation rate of 2.0% for the financial year 2025-2026, a decrease from its previous forecast of 2.6% [1]. Despite the moderate rise in November, the inflation rate remains near multi-year lows, posing a challenge for policymakers balancing economic growth and monetary stability. The RBI is expected to adjust monetary policies in response, with a potential 25 basis points cut in the repo rate already anticipated earlier this month [1][2].
Broader Economic Context
The broader economic landscape in India is marked by ongoing concerns about food price volatility impacting consumer inflation rates [3]. Economists, such as HDFC Bank’s principal economist Sakshi Gupta, emphasize that consecutive good cropping cycles have helped moderate food inflation, contrasting previous periods of weather-related supply disruptions [1]. This dynamic creates a complex environment for the RBI as it seeks to maintain inflation within target ranges while supporting economic growth [3].
Future Outlook
Looking ahead, inflation is expected to remain below 4% broadly until the second quarter of 2026, providing some stability for economic planning [1]. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, remained relatively stable at 4.39% in November 2025 [1]. The RBI’s continued monitoring and potential policy adjustments will play a crucial role in managing these trends, ensuring inflation remains within desired targets and supporting India’s economic resilience [3].