Iraq and UAE Fast-Track Overland Pipelines to Bypass the Strait of Hormuz Blockade
Baghdad, Tuesday, 9 June 2026.
With Hormuz exports plummeting from 14.79 million to 1.59 million cubic meters, Iraq and the UAE are urgently expanding overland pipelines to rescue global energy flows.
The Escalating Crisis and Market Impact
Following the direct military clashes between U.S. and Iranian forces on June 3, 2026, which severely escalated regional tensions, the disruption to global energy markets has reached historic proportions [GPT]. As of June 8, 2026, vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz remain significantly below prewar levels, with unauthorized ships risking Iranian attacks and those cooperating with Tehran facing U.S. sanctions [1]. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has characterized the fallout from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, which began in late February 2026, as the largest supply disruption on record [2]. Despite these immense logistical bottlenecks, Brent crude prices actually slipped below $0.59 per liter on June 8, driven by rising market optimism that ongoing diplomatic efforts might soon stabilize the Persian Gulf [3] [alert! ‘Market optimism regarding diplomatic stabilization remains highly volatile and subject to immediate reversal based on military developments’].
Iraq’s Urgent Northern Pivot
Recognizing the severe limitations of its southern maritime routes, the Iraqi government is aggressively pivoting its export infrastructure northward. On June 8, 2026, advancing plans initially approved in late May, the Iraqi cabinet authorized emergency measures to accelerate crude exports through the Kurdistan-Turkey pipeline network to the port of Ceyhan [1][3]. This expansion aims to increase daily shipments from 35,000 cubic meters to 122,400 cubic meters [1][3]. This ambitious pivot represents a planned capacity surge of 249.714 percent along the northern corridor.
The UAE and Saudi Infrastructure Race
The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are similarly racing to insulate their export economies, relying heavily on contingency plans originally conceptualized during the 1980s Iran-Iraq War [3]. In the UAE, Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan demanded faster delivery of pipeline projects on May 15, 2026 [1]. Abu Dhabi is fast-tracking the construction of its West-East pipeline to Fujairah, which is scheduled to come online in 2027 and will double the export capacity of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) [1][3]. Signaling confidence in its logistical workarounds, ADNOC issued its second tender in the first week of June 2026 to sell upcoming summer cargoes of Upper Zakum, Umm Lulu, and Das crude grades [3].
Persistent Security Risks for Alternative Routes
However, establishing overland bypass routes does not entirely eliminate the threat of regional asymmetric warfare. The existing alternative pipelines have already proven vulnerable to the escalating conflict [GPT]. In April 2026, Iran launched direct attacks against Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, while Iranian drones simultaneously targeted the UAE’s Fujairah terminal [1]. Furthermore, the UAE’s 360-kilometer Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, which has a capacity of up to 286,000 cubic meters per day, has suffered persistent oil loading disruptions from drone strikes since the broader U.S.-Israeli war with Iran commenced in late February 2026 [2].